Key View

• We continue to hold a positive outlook on the economic trajectory of Portugal as structural factors are very supportive of strong growth.
• However, that is not to say the economy will not face some speed bumps. Notably, the Q1 2025 real GDP print (-0.5% q-o-q) was a considerable downside surprise considering our upbeat outlook.
• Economic

Key View

• We have revised our 2025 outlook for the Russian vehicle market and now forecast total vehicle sales to decline by 17.3% y-o-y, driven by expensive automotive loans and widespread consumer hesitation.
• Many buyers are deferring purchases in anticipation of further price reductions, as Chinese brands contend with significant inventory buildup

Key View 

• Though Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko’s policies are unpopular with the public, we believe the opposition will struggle to co-ordinate action against the government – resulting in policy continuity.
• Regarding international affairs, Belarus’ recently claimed that it independently decided to scale down Zapad-2025 joint Russian

The Latest: On June 6 2025, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 20.00%, following four consecutive meetings with no rate changes. This marks the first move since October 2024, when the policy rate was raised by 200bps.

Forecast Implication: We maintain our view that the Bank will continue easing

Key View

• The EUHB is driving innovation and maintaining competitive pricing in its second round of bids, yet strategic interventions and supportive policies are urgently needed to address planning-stage bottlenecks.
• The EUHB auctions showcased differences in project sizes, with Round 1 focusing on larger-scale projects and Round 2 accommodating a

Latest Development: The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 4. 

Forecast Implications: We have kept our end-2025 policy rate forecast of 4.50% as the June decision came in line with our expectations.

Key View

• Our updated forecast for Germany's vehicle sales in 2025 reflects the adverse impact of US tariff measures, which have contributed to a dampened economic growth outlook and a less favourable environment for vehicle sales.
• Passenger vehicle sales are expected to decline by 1.2% in 2025, while for the commercial vehicle sub-category we expect

What The Consumer Team Is Watching In The Week Ahead

In the week ahead (June 02 to June 06 2025) our Country Risk team will be watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate setting meeting on June 5, where they expect policymakers to vote to cut interest rates by 25bps to 2.00%. Elevated global trade uncertainty, soft inflation, weak domestic

Latest Development: The Netherlands’ government collapsed after the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV) announced that it will leave the four-party governing coalition. The decision was announced by PPV leader Geert Wilders after the rest of the government refused to accept his 10-point migration plan which intended to drastically tighten

Key View

• The recent threat by US President Donald Trump to impose 50.0% tariffs on EU imports underscores the heightened volatility currently characterising EU-US trade relations.
• Although the president has since walked back this threat, we maintain our view that ongoing trade negotiations are unlikely to yield a favourable outcome for the EU.
• Accordi